Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
“We expect both railroads to hit their respective investor day targets despite our weaker estimates for 2023 and 2024. However, we see limited immediate upside for shorter-term investors ahead of the quarter,” said Mr. Poirier., Mr. Poirier trimmed his third-quarter estimates for both companies with volumes continuing to contract and seeing a “significant intermodal rebound unlikely in 2024 as melting pot of headwinds continues to exercise pressure.
“GFL remains committed to lower leverage and targets less than 4 times net debt/EBITDA for 2023E, from 4.2 times in Q2 . We believe it could achieve this goal by Q4E, but leverage in Q3E could be up quarter-over-quarter with the timing of cash flows and expenses related to the asset divestitures in Q2. Following FY’23E, GFL should be able to maintain leverage while investing more into the business, with potential to grow FCF to over $1-billion by 2025.
Pointing to “a strong return to target and a forecast for continued growth and margin improvement,” Mr. Merer reiterated his “outperform” recommendation for GFL shares, However, he trimmed his target by $1 to $54 target, citing “valuation headwinds across the market from higher bond interest rates.” The average target on the Street is $50.17.
“Q3 results should be fine but not without volatility from GM’s T1 downtime, the UAW strike and disruptions in Europe/Japan,” he said.
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