Peter Costello introduced intergenerational reports to give an outline of the country’s economic future. But all of them have contained huge errors.
If there’s one thing that we know about Jim Chalmers’ first intergenerational report, it’s that most of its forecasts will prove wrong.
In Costello’s first effort, released in 2002, Australia’s population was forecast to grow from 19.6 million to 25.3 million by the early 2040s. Two years later, we know the red ink has disappeared. Chalmers will next month announce the first budget surplus since 2007-08. All of the forecasts of previous intergenerational reports have been underpinned by an assumed level of productivity growth effectively at odds with reality. The 1990s-era surge in productivity - driven by personal computers and policy reforms in the 1980s - was locked into the first two reports.Wayne Swan’s report of 2010 noted that productivity growth, which determine the expected size of the economy, had slowed since the halcyon days of the 1990s.
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