In short: your guess is as good as ours.
Image: Henrik Montgomery/TT Image: Henrik Montgomery/TT THE UK HAS finally submitted proposals for what could replace the backstop – but we’re far from an EU Withdrawal Agreement or avoiding an extension.
This has confused some in the EU – Leo Varadkar among them – as it relies on a certain level of trust that has been lost between the EU and UK after three years of Brexit talks. Negotiations were continuing between Brussels and London in order to get something that might be acceptable to both sides – but already things seem tense after the UK’s chief negotiator David Frost reportedly offered to stay in Brussels over the weekend but the EU said no for fear of the perception that negotiations were ongoing over the proposals. They later released a statement saying Johnson’s proposals didn’t go far enough.
If all this is successful, Johnson would be able to bring that back to MPs and ask them to approve it by 19 October.That’s the date contained in Labour MP Hilary Benn’s legislation, which was forced through by opposition MPs and Tory rebels trying to ward off a no-deal in the narrow window they had in parliament before the unlawful prorogation at the start of September.
What if Johnson writes a 2nd letter undermining the first, but then complies with the law by writing a 3rd undermining the 2nd, and a 4th undermining the 3rd, so on, in an infinite series, all generated near-simultaneously, faster than the courts can judge their overall effectAnother scenario being discussed is the all-important letter to Brussels instead being written by Cabinet Secretary Sir Mark Sedwill or UK ambassador to the EU Sir Tim Barrow.
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