In its benchmark 2023 Energy Outlook, BP said the Ukraine war will slow global economic activity by 2035 by around 3% compared with last year’s forecast
Russia’s war in Ukraine is expected to weigh on long-term energy demand and accelerate the world’s shift to renewables and low-carbon power as countries boost domestic energy supplies, BP said in a report on Monday.said the Ukraine war will slow global economic activity by 2035 by around 3 per cent compared with last year’s forecast due to higher food and energy prices as well as reduced trade activity.
Under its three scenarios, global energy demand peaks between the late 2020s and 2035, according to BP, whose Chief Executive Bernard Looney aims to rapidly grow the company’s renewables business and slash oil and gas output by 2030.But global energy trade routes changed dramatically following the war, particularly after Moscow halted most of its natural gas exports to neighbouring Europe while Europe banned imports of Russian oil.
Put together, BP expects primary energy consumption in 2035 to be lower by 2 per cent compared with last year’s outlook, with half of the decline due to gains in energy efficiency and half due to lower economic activity. Oil demand is set to start declining rapidly after 2030 under BP’s three scenarios, but will continue to play a major role in the global energy system, with world demand reaching 70 to 80 million barrels per day by 2035, compared with today’s consumption of around 100 million bpd.
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