An expected rise in cases this fall is based on waning immunity rather than the threat of new variants better able to evade immunity, according to the latest COVID modelling projections.
The Omicron BA.5 subvariant continues to infect British Columbians at a high rate as immunity from both vaccinations and infections wanes, according to a report from the COVID-19 Modelling Group released Wednesday.
“Waning immunity will drive another wave of infections, even without the spread of new variants, unless there is substantial uptake of vaccinations,” it says.Under-reporting of cases remains extremely high, says the report. Infections in the province are estimated at 1,000 a day, one-hundred-fold more than reported.
The fall booster campaign now underway in B.C. offers a bivalent vaccine — a combination of spike protein strains that target the original Wuhan virus and Omicron BA.1 subvariant. “Given that this is the first bivalent booster ever used against COVID-19, it seems prudent to wait for additional safety and efficacy data in humans before rolling out the bivalent targeting BA.5,” says Otto.
“What is important is to get protected with whatever booster is available, particularly at the beginning of this next wave to maximize protection,” he writes. “The existing monovalent vaccines still give you strong protection against severe disease, hospitalization and death.” A pharmacist at Walgreens in Port Angeles, however, said she has seen few Canadians asking for vaccinations at her pharmacy.
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