USD: Finally aligned with the Dot Plot

📆 10/7/2024 5:52 PM

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📆 10/7/2024 5:52 PM
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The blowout US jobs report on Friday prompted the kind of hawkish repricing in rate expectations we thought would have materialised over a few weeks.

The blowoutUS jobs reporton Friday prompted the kind of hawkish repricing in rate expectations we thought would have materialised over a few weeks. Markets no longer have pretext to look through Federal ReserveChair Jerome Powell’s pushback against 50bp cuts, and are now finally aligned with the Dot Plot projections: 25bp cuts in November and December.

3% in August. That is also the consensus view–but whilefew economists are calling for another 0.3% print, no one seems to be expecting 0.1%.” “The FX market has suffered a hard reset as the notion of an aggressively dovish Fed has now evaporated. Coincidentally, there has been more dovish communication from other developed central banks, like the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.

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