Opinion Up periscope: 2023 will prove critical to Australia’s future security
While much of the politics of the year ahead will be preoccupied with controversies about the cost of living and the Indigenous Voice to parliament, in the next several weeks the Albanese government will be required to make two calls which, while less attention-getting, will be among the most important decisions it will ever make.
It is, in a sense, the continuation of a similar exercise initiated in 2011 by Smith when, as minister, he announced the Australian Defence Force Posture Review. Its terms of reference required it to “outline the future security and strategic environment and challenges Australia needs to be positioned to respond up to 2030”. That was reported in 2012; a number of its recommendations were implemented by the Abbott and Turnbull governments.
The problem of long-term decision-making in defence procurement will be nowhere more acute than in the choice of submarine type for AUKUS – a decision the government has committed to announcing in March.There is a near-to-universal expectation that it will opt for an American build. Considerations of both cost and sooner delivery favour that course. Yet in either case, the soonest delivery will not be before the early 2030s.
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