UBS: Fundamentals could drive refreshed risk rally in medium-term
Markets are expected to stay “highly sensitive” to any economic data that falls short of expectations, potentially leading to increased volatility until sufficient positive data alleviates growing recession fears, UBS said Monday.closed the week with only a slight 4 basis points decline, despite futures signaling a potential 4% drop at the start of Monday., which had surged to 65 early Monday—its highest level since March 2020—fell back to 20.4 by Friday, below the previous week’s close.
"Investors are jittery and disappointing inflation, retail sales, and initial jobless claims data this week could easily reverse the reversal last week,” analysts said in a note. A new monthly jobs report is not due until September 6. Yet, if positive, the combination of positive data “that reinforces soft landing confidence—which we expect—along with supportive investor positioning and the start of rate cuts in September is a potent mix for risk assets over the medium term,” analysts said.
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