A polarized United States, a strained relationship with China and potential COVID-19 rebounds are among the global risks facing Canada in 2023, according to a former adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Gerry Butts, now vice chair at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said in a Wednesday interview with BNN Bloomberg that there is little policymakers in Canada can do domestically to ease global economic pressures, due to the size of the country’s economy.
He described Canada’s global dilemma as a “double-whammy,” with “a world that has no cohesive global leadership and a fractured United States.” Added to that is Canada’s still-tense relationship with China stemming from the 2018 arrests of Canadians Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig after Chinese tech executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Canada.
Butts pointed to more stability in the U.S. after the midterm elections last fall as a “good sign for Canadian investors,” but noted that polarized politics in the U.S. will likely remain an issue into the next presidential election.Some of those trends have seeped into Canadian media and movements like the Freedom Convoy that occupied Ottawa last year, but Butts argued that Canadian politics has overall resisted the deep divisions that have emerged in the U.S.
Despite movement away from strict economic COVID-19 controls that affected much for the world’s economy for the last few years, Butts also raised the virus as “yet another force for disruption,” particularly with the massive surge in cases in China amid the country’s swift reopening. “If we end up in a situation where large manufacturing regions of China have to be shut down because people are sick and can't go to work, that's going to create all of the supply chain problems that we lived through during the height of the pandemic,” he said.“We may be in for a few downsides, surprises because of that,” he said.
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