Tom Bradley: Forget Trump and Brexit. These other two trends will have a bigger impact on returns
These are the four most expensive words in investing. That’s because whatever seemingly unique situation we’re going through is not all that different from what the economy and markets have already experienced. In other words, most ‘secular’ trends are just ‘cyclical.’ Things that are way above or below the long-term trend eventually revert to the mean.
I recently talked about two of the most important ones in client presentations across the country. Surprising to some, I didn’t focus on Trump, Brexit and trade. Policy announcements and tweets on these issues still cause markets to jump, and they certainly have the potential to impact economic and profit growth. But in my view, they’ve moved into the ‘not different’ category. We will muddle through each of them and their negative impact is waning.
This factor is flashing on my dashboard because it can’t go on indefinitely. At some point, the pace of debt growth must slow or reverse, and with it will come less economic activity and a dramatically different attitude toward consumption and investing.While we live in our debt-laden cocoon in western countries, however, we need to remember that there’s a big, dynamic world out there. Indeed, a vast majority of the 7.5 billion people on the planet live in regions that are growing.
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