An extended mild recession and sticky inflation is more likely – which will always be prone to more shocks.
There are three broad ways the global economy could evolve this year. Markets are betting on a soft landing with a mild recession and interest rates falling soon.
Zombie firms that survived on zero interest rates may crumble in an era of higher rates, even with only a mild recession. Corporate collapses could cause a financial crisis and a deeper recession. How the Russian invasion of Ukraine plays out is also central to whether Europe has a mild recession. A much sharper recession requires new jolts to Western economies that prevent a smooth landing due to financial market meltdown, European or Chinese problems, or out of left field.
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