Haider-Moranis Bulletin: While it is tempting to ‘time’ the market by buying low and selling high, it is increasingly difficult to do it with housing
Uncertainty arises in markets when their future direction is unknown. Families across Canada, for example, are wondering whether the housing markets will continue to lose steam or reverse their course.
While we will try to share what we see in our “crystal ball,” we are always mindful not to confuse a forecast — which is just one possible manifestation of the future out of many — with what will actually come to pass. Buyers and sellers want to know if the market has hit bottom or if it will decline further, with prospective buyers being particularly interested in the question of when they should jump in.
Also, buyers can have different motivations: they may be transitioning from renting, switching homes, or looking for an investment property. Diversity of family structure in terms of size and composition also plays a factor. Some families will have school-age children, others may have pets or both. The same applies to sellers, complicating further the potential to make a match.
At the same time, prospective sellers in general want to wait for prices to rise, or at least stop falling, before they list their properties. This implies that the choice of housing available during downturns might not be as diverse when markets are stable. Thus, buyers might want to wait for the dust to settle.
Recent research showed that some investors who bought under-construction condominiums in Toronto wound up underwater because rent did not cover mortgage payments, maintenance fees and property taxes. This was true even though rental vacancy rates were as low as one per cent and rents have been steadily climbing in the city.
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