There has never been an election with so many polls showing such a close race.
polling average shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump essentially tied across the seven key battleground states, with the two separated by less than 1 percentage point in five of the seven.
The biggest shifts in the average this week were in Michigan and Wisconsin. And in this case, “biggest” does not mean “big.” Trump gained a single point according to our averages — the kind of movement that may feel seismic in such a closely divided and stable election, but wouldn’t be worthy of much note in previous cycles. It’s also a shift that’s small enough that one or two high-quality polls for Harris next week could quickly send her numbers back up.
But so far the Republican polling wave isn’t responsible for any major movement in the polling averages. One simple test: what our polling averages would look like if we excluded every poll sponsored by Republicans or conducted by Republican polling firms, along with surveys by any pollsters that I’ve seen being accused of trying to flood the zone for Republicans.
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