While the post-pandemic demand for two wheels has slowed, decarbonisation might create a new generation of cyclists.
In the noise and uncertainty of mid-2021, it looked very much like the bicycle had quietly won the pandemic.
Both halves of this story make sense, though both look overdone. If the bike boom is truly finished, though, the question is whether a bigger one might be induced by regulation, the energy crisis and Emmanuel Macron’s vision of “collective sobriety”.The 2021 bike-related share price spikes were propelled by a subset of the belief that COVID-19 has permanently changed the way we live., cabin fever was powerful, commuting patterns were in flux and working days were reshaping themselves.
Investors piled into the narrative that global bicycle demand was now on a stratospheric trajectory. A projection by research group Fortune Business Insights valued the global bicycle market at $US78 billion in 2021, rising to $US128 billion by the end of the decade. Shimano’s new orders for delivery nine months from now are looking weaker than a year ago. Investors now fret that the once inadequate global inventories of bicycles are being steadily replenished, and that economic downturn – particularly in the key European market – will soften overall demand.
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