There are signs today's vote will defy at least one of the norms of electoral politics in NSW nswvotes
Premier Gladys Berejiklian leads a government spending tens of billions on infrastructure projects at a time when unemployment in NSW is at an historic low. And yet her majority on the floor of the NSW Parliament has dwindled since the last election after two shock byelection losses – first in the Nationals stronghold of Orange in 2016 and then in Wagga Wagga last year.
Six of the government’s 10 most marginal seats are in the regions, five of them held by the National Party. Even the giant western NSW electorate of Barwon, which the Nationals hold with a margin of 12.9 per cent, is under serious threat from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party.The past two elections have seen unusually large statewide swings. In 2011 the Liberals and Nationals crushed the ALP with an extraordinary 16.
But the Coalition, especially the Nationals, have this week been studiously managing expectations to avoid damaging protest votes. They are sticking to the line that it is "too close to call". "It is just too close to call, and it is hard to know the impact of the feds on us, but I will say that if we win the election, it won't be because of them but in spite of them," the source says. "Obviously I think we deserve to win but I if I had to say, I suspect it will be a minority government."
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