Global demand for critical minerals such as copper and cobalt is transforming the fortunes of the countries that produce them. Read more.
, point to how the DRC, the world’s largest producer of cobalt, is starting to flex its muscles when it comes to the metals needed for the energy transition.
Demand is only going to grow in coming years. Under current plans, none of these key commodities will have enough operating mines by 2030 to build the infrastructure necessary to limit global warming to 1.5C above preindustrial levels, according to the International Energy Agency. Many are trying to capture more of the value of their minerals, by moving more processing and value-added manufacturing domestically. Some are also attempting to control the supply, by nationalizing mineral resources, introducing export controls, and even proposing cartels.
The subtle shift in power towards the producers of sought-after battery metals is similar to other commodities shifts of the past, like the rise of coal during 19th century or the rise of tin during the 20th. But how far will producers go to take advantage of this moment? And how long can they make it last?Article contentPhoto by Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images files
Not everyone agrees with these policies, however: the EU has challenged them at the World Trade Organization and won an initial hearing. Indonesia is appealing against the verdict. Whether or not that happens, the rise of nickel has certainly given Indonesia a higher profile. When President Joko Widodo, or “Jokowi” as he is typically known, visited the U.S. last year, he met both President Joe Biden in Washington and Tesla Inc. chief executive Elon Musk in an out-of-the way stopover in Boca Chica, Texas.
Argentina’s 23 provinces control their own natural resources and have enthusiastically courted mining business. With roughly US$9.6 billion of lithium investment announced in the past three years, and 38 projects in the pipeline, officials say Argentina’s production should go up six-fold over the next five years.Article content
This is another reason why producing battery metals is different than producing oil: it is very hard to form a successful cartel. Unlike oil, which is very hard to replace as a fuel source, battery metals have a much higher risk of substitution. The laboratories developing new battery chemistries are constantly evolving their formulas to use less of the metals that are expensive or hard to acquire.
A slowdown in China’s production of electric vehicles, combined with an increase in production, has brought cobalt hydroxide and lithium carbonate prices down 30 per cent and 40 per cent, respectively, during the first six months of the year, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.Article content
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