OPINION: The message an EFF surge will send to Luthuli House | DanielSilke
released this past weekend is – despite its possible inaccuracies – sobering and disturbing. It presents one possible scenario outcome of the May 8 poll and a resulting set of potential consequences.
With the EFF already able to lead the debate on land expropriation, a double-in-size growth for the party will ratify that stand and strategy and put immense pressure on the ANC for a constitutional change that might well be more uncomfortable than originally envisaged. Psychologically, a growing EFF and declining DA will have its own set of dynamics on party moral, participation and fundraising. The old cliché of 'nothing succeeds like success' is very relevant for political parties. Voters want a winning team and they want strength to influence events. A depressed DA will therefore face a herculean task of recovery.
A strong EFF will therefore make Ramaphosa's policy shifts even more complex. And with ANC caucus members increasingly uneasy about further electoral erosion at local government level in just 24 months, the ANC might descend into yet another debilitating internal struggle. By choosing to tweet this image, Mabuza is indicating a preference amongst the major opposition groups – perhaps paving the way for a future alliance over the expropriation amendment, provincial pacts where coalitions are needed or even something more akin to an eventual re-integration of the EFF into the ANC.
A stronger EFF will pry open the fissures already apparent within the ANC and can lead to a destabilisation of the Ramaphosa Presidency in the process. Ironically for Ramaphosa, his own reform agenda would be better supported if the DA did well and not the EFF.
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