The BOM's latest climate update keeps the possibility of El Niño at 50 per cent, but the US's chief forecast agency, NOAA, says it's a 90 per cent chance.
abc.net.au/news/noaa-bom-el-nino-chances-explored/102341466The US and Australia's chief forecasting agencies are projecting vastly different odds on the development of an El Niño climate pattern this year.
El Niño describes a shift in ocean and weather patterns across the Pacific which carries rain away from Australia. El Niño is linked to warmer, drier weather in Australia's east and has a reputation for bringing drought. When it comes to actually declaring an El Niño underway, the criteria from both agencies become much closer, with both requiring observed changes in the atmosphere, although BOM still requires ocean temperatures to be warmer than NOAA.
"But if the atmospheric conditions aren't pointing to El Niño or, as is the case right now, we've got warmer ocean temperatures [on both sides] of the Pacific, then we're not necessarily going to get that hot and dry outcome.
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