Analysts say the chance of the SEC approving a spot BTC ETF in 2023 and the conversion of Grayscale’s GBTC to an ETF now stands at 75%.
- Tuesday’s ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals that the Securities and Exchange Commission must reconsider Grayscale’s application to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an exchange-traded fund helped breathe life into an otherwise stagnant crypto market, but it remains to be seen whether the momentum will last or fade away in a similar manner as other rally-inducing announcements thus far in 2023.
To determine how a spot BTC ETF could perform after launch, Thielen used the market capitalization of the leading gold ETF, SPDR Gold, which is $58 billion. He also noted that a Bitcoin ETF would prompt registered investment advisors to reevaluate their allocation models to include digital assets, which unlocks a treasure trove of funds as the 14,800 RIAs in the U.S. manage over $5 trillion in assets.
“While we factored Grayscale's win into our previous 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of [the] ruling was beyond expectations and leaves [the] SEC with very little wiggle room,” Balcuhunas tweeted.
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