Silver market fundamentals strong as it enters new era of supply deficits
Silver, like gold, has returned to the spotlight this year with the precious metal recently trading at its highest in a year at just under $26 an ounce.
Some are already claiming this is"the year" for silver as it latches onto an inflation-fuelled rally to eventually surpass the $30-an-ounce mark that was last seen nine years ago. Last year, demand for silver surged by 18% to a record high 1.24 billion ounces against a stagnant supply, stretching the market deficit to a second straight year, the Silver Institute said in its latest publication.
The Silver Institute is forecasting another 1.17 billion ounces being demanded this year, against a projected supply of 1.02 billion ounces. While this would close the gap to 142.1 million ounces, it would still be the second-largest deficit in over two decades. This structural change in silver demand also builds on promising cyclical factors such as GDP growth, and specifics such as gains for consumer electronics, a further rise in vehicle output and growth for the construction industry.
As the metal with the highest electrical and thermal conductivity, silver is ideally suited to solar panels. A 2020 Saxo Bank report stated that"potential substitute metals cannot match silver in terms of energy output per solar panel. And without a sudden, large injection of supply, it won't be surprising to see the current silver deficit extend beyond the end of this decade while setting new records along the way.While there can be no such thing as"safe bets" when it comes to commodities, silver is probably the closest thing thanks to its solid fundamentals, acting as a support for the metal's long-term pricing.
That demand, according to Shiels, is expected to grow more than 15% over that period, hinging on accelerated industrial demand from automotive and electronics applications. Silver mining executives, too, are optimistic. Randy Smallwood of Wheaton Precious Metals said that"I'm very bullish on gold, but I'm even more bullish on silver."
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