Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
The Return of Quant Investing“We will remember 2022 as a dismal year for traditional investment strategies across asset classes … For traditional investment strategies, there really was nowhere to hide. Nevertheless, 2022 has turned out to be a decent year for systematic factor or quant investing. As measured by the SG Alternative Risk Premia Index, quant strategies posted a healthy positive total return of 3.
“One might be wondering if crude oil’s bubble has popped, which would be music to the ears of consumers and central bankers. However, we think it’s too early to declare that crude oil prices have been effectively tamed … Although fears of a global recession are currently dictating the direction of crude oil prices, this factor may not dominate for long. The global oil supply picture remains ominous as Russia could still end up shutting in production and OPEC+ could curtail output further.
“Main St outperformed Wall St in ‘22 … ratio of financial assets to GDP dropped from remarkable 6.2x to 5.4x as wages rose, asset prices slumped … but [we predict] Main St ‘hard landing’ in ‘23 as monetary policy drives mean reversion of abnormally low 3.7% unemployment rate , 2.3% personal savings rates , 2.1% credit card delinquency rates , 1.
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