Risk of Lebanese-Israeli conflict is real, but a ceasefire in Gaza may help

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Risk of Lebanese-Israeli conflict is real, but a ceasefire in Gaza may help
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Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia that dominates southern Lebanon, has said it will stop firing rockets if Israel halts its war with Hamas in Gaza.

For nine months, Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia that dominates southern Lebanon, have fought a low-level conflict that has edged closer to an all-out war. Since October, both sides have fired thousands of missiles across the Israel-Lebanon border, wrecking towns, killing hundreds, displacing hundreds of thousands and leading both to threaten to invade the other.

Those negotiations would focus on the withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters from the southernmost areas of Lebanon and the deployment of more soldiers from Lebanon’s official military, according to the officials. The talks would also focus on how to demarcate the westernmost parts of the border between the two countries, the officials said; the border has never formally been delineated because the two countries have no diplomatic relationship.

The sides last fought a major land war in 2006, in a month-long conflict in which Israel devastated large parts of Beirut, the Lebanese capital, and southern Lebanon. The scale of the destruction led Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, to subsequently concede that his group would not have kidnapped and killed several Israeli soldiers that summer had it known it would set off such carnage.

More than 460 people in Lebanon have been killed, most of them militants. More than 100 were civilians, including 12 children and 21 health workers, according to the UN and Lebanon’s Health Ministry. Strikes on Israel have killed 21 Israeli soldiers and eight civilians, according to the Israeli government.

Since the start of June, the Israeli military has killed two senior Hezbollah commanders and said it had finalised plans for an “offensive” in Lebanon. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said the country was “very close to the moment of decision to change the rules against Hezbollah and Lebanon”.During the same period, Hezbollah has fired two of its largest barrages since the start of the war, sending hundreds of rockets into Israel.

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