Downturn or recession? Experts debate the severity of economic shock ahead.
The Business Council of BC’s chief economist points out that inflation is sky-high at the same time labour markets are facing a severe crunch, with Statistics Canada reporting more than one million job vacancies as of June.
Bryan Yu, chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union, said “abnormal factors” resulting from the pandemic, such as ongoing supply chain issues, are still filtering through the economy during a “period in which labour markets are wildly out of whack in terms of how tight they are. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent rate hikes – up another 75 basis points last month alone – have resulted in a decline in the Canadian dollar.
Peacock said part of the problem is that central banks were behind the curve raising rates and are now trying to rapidly make up ground in the fight against inflation. But he remains more skeptical about the province’s ability to make a soft landing due to its economic dependence on the declining real estate market.
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