Providing systems to defend against Russia risks weakening the west’s deterrence posture towards China, says Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute
to bolster its own depleted stocks, and this, combined with ongoing domestic missile production, means these attacks may persist for a long time. Defending Ukraine from missile attacks is now a humanitarian priority.
It is important to note that the system will not provide immediate protection, and so Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are likely to continue in the short term. Patriot is a complex system to both operate and maintain. Previously provided equipment As Ukraine’s stocks of air defence missiles have fallen, the country has become increasingly dependent on international support, just as it now relies on its partners for the majority of its artillery ammunition and armoured vehicles. That reliance comes with some risks, especially for systems for which Ukraine’s partners have limited stocks.
In some respects this problem of supply reflects the wider challenge in munitions supplies to Ukraine. Ukrainian armed forces’ consumption of ammunition significantly exceeds the available supply, and their artillery is wearing out barrels faster than they can be replaced. The hollowing out of Nato’s defence industries has left the alliance in poor shape to support sustained high-intensity operations.