Dwelling values boomed when the pandemic hit, plunged once interest rates moved, and are stabilising at higher levels than in March 2020. What’s next?
Sydney dwelling value growth since March 2020Regional dwelling value growth since March 2020Australian property prices are well above their pre-COVID-19 levels three years since the pandemic began, following a property boom and slowdown, but vary by city and may have further to fall.
When lockdowns began, property values fell briefly but soon rebounded due to emergency stimulus measures such as record-low interest rates, income support payments and mortgage holidays that prevented a wave of distressed selling. “The approval pipeline has been trending lower for attached dwellings, really, since 2018, but that was compounded by what we’ve seen through the pandemic. And the strong bounce-back of overseas migration has created a bit of a shock to that inelastic supply situation,” Owen said.“There’s a strong sense that values are going to be shifted higher for quite a long time because of that mismatch.”
But housing values might have further to fall, depending on how far interest rates rise and how many workers lose their jobs, she said. “The return to more normal levels of interest rates would argue in the opposite direction, that there’s still more downside to go. “If you have a look at places like the Gold Coast and south-east Queensland, they did see a massive increase in property values during the pandemic, they’re not falling at the same rate,” she said.Conisbee noted the recent stabilisation in the market more broadly, and did not expect prices to drop below their March 2020 levels, although that would depend on interest rates.
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