Prime Picks: UFCOrlando ‘Thompson vs. Holland’ via jaypettry
Neither combatant in this heavyweight slugfest exceeds the age of 30, making them the young guns in this breakdown. While other narrower options like “Fight Doesn’t Start Round 2” see lower minus odds, they may not be available in most sportsbooks. A simple under, which expects that the fight will not reach 7:30—or 2:30 of the second round—is perhaps the best and safest option given the surrounding upset central picks.
When stacking up the resumes of the two fighters, the Russian posts an 81% knockout rate, with all 13 of his finishes coming in the first round. On the other hand, Tuivasa also has performed 13 knockouts without a submission to his credit, and this accounts for a stoppage rate of 93%. The boisterous Aussie has earned a pair of knockouts outside the opening frame, but none of those exceeded 2:30 of Round 2.
Several of the opponents who have overcome Holtzman of late have done so by putting “Hot Sauce” on his back. While not quite the same takedown machine he was in the days of old, Guida still maintains the chops to chain wrestle and get an opponent down—or at least force a scramble to make the two hit the ground. Guida is more hittable than he used to be, but his frantic movement still flusters opponents, and he has not slowed when reaching deep waters.
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