Investors remain braced for higher interest rates in the United States and Europe in the wake of more positive economic data
in the United States and Europe and there could be more figures to underpin that argument this week.
China has manufacturing surveys and the National People’s Congress kicks off at the weekend and will see new economic policy targets and policies, as well as a reshuffling of government officials. January’s euphoria, which was founded on expectations that the major economies will avoid tumbling into recession this year, has given way to something approaching realism about the outlook for interest rates, which are going to rise by more and stay at those levels for longer than many had previously anticipated.
When the Fed concluded its last policy meeting in early February - prior to the release of bumper January employment and business-sector activity data - markets showed traders expected a peak rate of 4.73%, meaning that there’s almost an extra three-quarters of a point now priced in. It’s not just the United States, where investors believe the central bank will have to keep raising rates to bring inflation back down. Money markets show traders believe the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will have to lift rates to a higher peak and leave them there for longer.
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