Dramatic findings point to Conservatives losing every red wall seat that they secured at the last election
Labour is currently on course to win a landslide victory on the scale of 1997, according to dramatic new modelling that points to the Conservatives losing every red wall seat secured at the last election.
While a 190-seat Labour majority is its average estimate, the modelling – based on polling carried out shortly before the– suggests Labour could have between 402 and 437 seats. The Tories could have between 132 and 169 seats. The results suggest a Labour majority between 154 and 224 seats. The findings will be controversial among both parties members. Many Labour insiders are expecting the polls to close over the coming months as the election approaches. Senior figures in Sunak’s team also believe they can target Labour leaderDespite Sunak’s attempts to switch focus to his plans to, the analysis suggests that voters remain overwhelmingly focused on the cost of living and the state of the NHS.
Bassetlaw, whose predecessor seat saw the country’s largest swing from Labour to the Tories in 2019, is predicted to return to Labour. The model suggests a 23-point lead with 12% of residents reporting they are “financially desperate”. Meanwhile, North Dorset – whose predecessor seat last elected a non-Conservative MP in 1945 – is predicted to fall to the Liberal Democrats.
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