Philippines Inflation Forecast to Rise Before Stabilizing

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Philippines Inflation Forecast to Rise Before Stabilizing
Inflation,Philippines,Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) predicts inflation in the Philippines will reach 2.3-3.1 percent in December 2023, bringing the full-year average to 3.2 percent. While recent storms and elevated power and fuel prices are expected to contribute to price pressures, lower agricultural commodity prices, particularly rice, should partially offset these increases. The BSP maintains its inflation target of 2.0 percent to 4.0 percent until 2028.

INFLATION could hit 2.3-3.1 percent this month and bring the full-year average to a within-target 3.2 percent, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said on Friday.The central bank, which also announced that the current 2.0- to 4.0-percent inflation goal would be maintained to 2028, said price pressures for the month would come from the impact of recent storms as well as higher power and fuel prices.

'Nonetheless, these are expected to be offset in part by lower prices of agricultural commodities like rice,' it added.'Going forward, the BSP will continue to monitor developments affecting the outlook for inflation and growth in line with its data-dependent approach to monetary policy decision-making.'December inflation data will be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority on Jan. 7.Inflation picked up for a second straight month to 2.5 percent in November after hitting a year low of 1.9 percent in September. Monetary authorities this month raised their outlooks to 2026, but do not expect a breach.The risk-adjusted forecast for 2024 was adjusted to 3.2 percent from 3.1 percent while that for next year was raised to 3.4 percent from 3.3 percent. The outlook for 2026, however, was kept at 3.7 per-cent.The baseline forecasts for this year and the next, meanwhile, were raised to 3.2 percent and 3.3 per-cent, respectively, from 3.1 percent and 3.2 percent. For 2026, the BSP expects inflation to settle at 3.5 percent instead of 3.4 percent.The possibility of higher inflation has raised the prospect of fewer interest rate cuts. The BSP's policy-making Monetary Board, which reduced key rates by 75 basis points (bps) this year, is now widely ex-pected to announce just 75 bps of cuts in 2025 instead of 100.The central bank's benchmark rate currently stands at 5.75 percent.As for the 2.0- to

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