Opinion: 'A wise man said it's dangerous to make predictions, especially about the future,' writes David Olive. 'But here it goes.' The Star's Business Columnist breaks down where we're headed when it comes to housing, inflation and a possible recession.
The Bank of Canada said this month that it still sees “a path to a soft landing” for the Canadian economy, meaning no recession.
Forecasters expect a further drop in housing prices over the next year, by about 14 per in Ontario and B.C., from their February 2022 peak.. And there is a floor under house prices. It consists of, among other factors, record immigration flows, a low likelihood of overbuilding, and greater affordability due to lower prices.
The bank will keep raising rates into 2023 and possibly beyond until it sees inflation restored to its normal rate of 2 per cent.So is the decline in gasoline and diesel prices, which could fall more in 2023 with forecasters predicting a lower world oil price in the $70 to $75 range, down from the record $114 in May. That’s due to expected reduced demand caused by anticipated sharp economic slowdowns in Europe and China.
Sectors most vulnerable to job loss include those tied to housing. These are construction, building materials, renovation supplies, furniture and appliances, and financial services.
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