TD’s Beata Caranci sees soft landing for Canadian economy, but a long stay on the tarmac
, there’s a growing confidence that we’ll actually pull off that elusive soft landing that economists talk about. But Beata Caranci warns that once we touch down, we may be stuck on the tarmac longer than we expected.
She and her TD colleagues predict that gross domestic product will grow a thin 0.7 per cent in 2023 – and an even thinner 0.4 per cent in 2024. Effectively, she anticipates two years of near-recession., which will strain Canada’s heavily indebted consumers and ultimately force them into a protracted period of debt reduction – or “deleveraging,” as economists call it.
At least economic forecasting looks set for a much less wild ride heading into this downturn than the past one. In the uncertain and fast-changing weeks and months after the economy plunged into recession in 2020, Bay Street’s economists were rewriting their forecasts every couple of weeks. Even well into 2021, there were wide disagreements on where the economy was headed and how quickly.
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