Should we brace for a new COVID-19 wave this fall?
The fall of 2020 was marked by a large and unexpected jump in COVID-19 cases, one that signalled that the pandemic was gaining a foothold. What followed was a sharp increase in hospitalizations and deaths.
The most important pandemic metric remains hospital capacity. Unfortunately, Canadian hospitals have little wiggle room. Well-known problems – overflowing ERs, bed shortages and staffing woes, and more – are chronic and it won’t take much of an increase in serious COVID-19 cases to push some to the brink.
The best protection against COVID-19 remains vaccination. The vaccines don’t provide great protection against infection but they still work remarkably well at preventing hospitalization and death. Confusing messaging about who should get bivalent vaccines, and when, hasn’t helped. The reality is that the timing of boosters now depends largely on personal circumstances, and requires some personal risk assessment.
The subvariants, which still only make up a tiny percentage of cases, have mutated to evade immunity. Practically, that means vaccines will be less effective.
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