OPINION: Provinces accept federal money at own peril onpoli
This should serve as a warning for the provinces that may find themselves on the hook for Ottawa’s big spending plans. For example, the Trudeau government has earmarked $43.1 billion for the provinces in an attempt to deliver $10-a-day daycare, an area of exclusive provincial jurisdiction, from 2021-22 to 2027-28. Any change in federal priorities or federal finances could swing the financial burden on the provinces to maintain the program..
Such a massive change would have huge financial implications for the provinces. In Ontario, for example, based on budget projections, the province would slip from a projected budget surplus to a deficit in 2026-27, simply to cover Ottawa’s spending reduction.The federal government has run uninterrupted deficits since 2007-08, with total federal gross debt climbing from $692 billion in 2007-08 to a projected $1.9 trillion in 2023-24.
The Trudeau government has committed to significant new funding in areas of provincial jurisdiction, but provincial policymakers should understand the risk to their finances when entering into such agreements. Ottawa can unilaterally reduce or eliminate funding at any point, leaving provinces to either assume the unexpected financial burden through higher taxes or additional borrowing, or curtail the programs.
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