Look past the economic gloom, millennials and Gen Z – the future is bright
John Rapley is a political economist at the University of Cambridge and managing director of Seaford Macro.are not without foundation. They’ve graduated with heavier debt loads, into a less forgiving job market, as home ownership was getting beyond reach. They’ve had to deal with the legacy of previous generations’ carbon profligacy, with studies revealing that young people despair of a climate crisis whose chief culprits will be long gone by the time it hits hard.
There will be some pain at first. The year ahead will probably be a tough one for most people, especially if we. However, once we get to the other side of it, the economy will look different from what we’ve known. In particular, it will favour young people in a way that hasn’t been true for decades. Of course, since you need money to buy assets, this type of economy favoured owners over workers. Those trying to build capital the old-fashioned way, by squirrelling away a bit of each paycheque, often found it hard to get ahead. As anyone who tried to build their first down payment in the past few years could tell you, the cost of assets often ran ahead of savings.
Moreover, the decline in real wages may not last much longer. A recent analysis I did with some colleagues found that, owing to structural and long-lasting changes in global labour markets, workers have gained. As a result, wages have been steadily closing the gap with inflation and may well turn positive before long. The resulting “stickiness” in inflation may thus force central banks to keep interest rates up, as I wrote recently, prolonging the pain in asset markets.
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