OPINION: Key measure of economic well-being in Canada basically flatlined since 2015

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OPINION: Key measure of economic well-being in Canada basically flatlined since 2015
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Canada’s economic prosperity is stagnating — at best.

recent report

from the Desjardins credit union shows that Canada lags behind many of its peers in the level of GDP per person, a common measure of prosperity. Before Trudeau took office, Canada’s GDP per person roughly matched the average for the developed economies as a group. Since then, “an increasingly wide gap has opened up with other advanced economies,” according to Desjardins.

After stripping out inflation, GDP per person in Canada has been almost flat since 2015. Moreover, Canada ranks near the bottom among all developed economies in improving this core indicator of economic wellbeing. Yes, the Canadian economy has been growing over the past seven to eight years, but this mainly reflects a larger population and workforce coupled with the impact of inflation.

And the situation is getting worse. Statistics Canada reports that real GDP per person stood at $56,206 in 2019 before the onset of COVID-19. It dropped sharply to $52,741 in 2020 before rebounding over the course of 2021-22 as the economy reopened. But in 2022, real GDP per person remained below the 2019 level and was scarcely higher than five years earlier.

How will things evolve going forward? Using economic growth forecasts embodied in the 2023 federal budget and assuming annual population growth of 1.8%, even by 2027 real GDP per person — again, the key indicator of how Canadians are faring in economic terms — will remain below its pre-pandemic level and be only a smidgeon higher than in 2017..

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