If attempts to strengthen Alberta’s position in the federation are ignored, the bolder option for a common market, a break from Canada and closer association…
There are a couple of sensible ways this might be accomplished in the near term, but if those efforts fail, Alberta might be left with no choice but to break with Canada and pursue a closer associating with the United States.
In the first and clearly preferable scenario, Alberta’s leadership uses this unprecedented crisis to seek a new, strategic grand bargain with the federal government by negotiating hard, like Quebec has done, especially since Alberta gives substantially more to the federation than it receives.
However, achieving this goal will require leadership and tenacity from Ottawa, which is not assured. Internal free trade also continues to meet with resistance, primarily from Quebec and Ontario, and is more aspirational than real. The original agreement contains 130 pages of “exclusions.” The second option would be to seek the expansion of Western oil and gas pipelines to Ontario, coupled with the development of new petrochemical refinery capacity in Sarnia, Ont., and Edmonton. This option would not only contribute to domestic job creation, but also allow Canada to break the stranglehold that American-based refineries in Texas and Louisiana have on North American petroleum product supply chains.
This initiative would start with a MacDonald commission-style six-month study of the pros and cons of a common market arrangement with the United States. It would be followed by a high-level informal sounding with the U.S. administration and Congress. Assuming interest in the U.S. and a positive recommendation from the study, the third step would be to subject the study result to a referendum. A positive referendum result would trigger formal negotiations with the United States.
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