Alberta’s 2023-24 budget is likely to be a positive story for the province
Travis Toews started out as the apparent front-runner in his United Conservative Party’s leadership race last year. But his brand of button-down conservatism was trumped by now-Premier Danielle Smith, who won by signing up the Albertans angriest with Ottawa and COVID-19 health restrictions.
This is, of course, not a bad budget for a Finance Minister to be presiding over. The economic outlook this year is dicey – there are many contradictory messages about whether global inflation will be tamed without a hard landing. Still, Alberta’s 2023-24 budget is likely to be a good news story. Energy prices aren’t as high as they were last year, but they’re high enough.
This surplus will exist not only because of higher energy prices, but also because of an oil sands royalty system that has reached a more mature stage: the post-payout period. This is when initial project costs are covered and producers pay a far higher percentage of their net revenues to the Alberta government. The pace of projects hitting “payout” has ramped up, and the government says that well more than half of the province’s 111 oil sands projects are in that category.
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