'A triad of like-minded democracies is a step forward in blunting the efficacy of China’s geopolitical strategy in East Asia.' Opinion
The region’s geopolitical landscape is about to change, after President Marcos and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced the possible formation of a security triad involving the Philippines, Japan, and the United States. This development is the likely product of several cabinet-level dialogues, multilateral exercises, and military staff talks conducted among the three states over the years.
For the Philippines, the agreements reached during the inaugural 2+2 meeting at Tokyo in 2022, and the 10th Bilateral Strategic Dialogue in Manila early this year already provides a roadmap for cooperation with the US and Japan. Taking a slice among two dialogues, we consider the possibilities, in terms of military modernization, maritime cooperation, and infrastructure development:
The Navy needs to rebuild its surface fleet, after decommissioning its legacy vessels. Conceivably, some of the JPY600 billion allocated to help the country attain Upper Middle Income Country status by 2025 can be invested in Subic’s Agila Shipyard. This allows new ships to be constructed locally, and hopefully jumpstart the county’s naval shipbuilding industry.
Lastly, an infrastructure development program can also be tweaked to counter China’s attempts to exert influence over provinces, such as Cagayan, Ilocos Norte and Sur, Zambales, Palawan, etc. These are situated in areas critical to China’s maritime interests, and an infusion of Japanese capital in these provinces might possibly wean away our governors and mayors from the lure of Chinese FDIs.
In summary, a triad of like-minded democracies is a step forward in blunting the efficacy of China’s geopolitical strategy in East Asia. For the Philippines, Japan’s active posture can be a moderating influence in times of crisis and mitigate the asymmetry and shortcomings in our relations with the US. In the end, navigating the region’s security challenges requires the enlightened use of statecraft, and the capacity to work with other states.
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