New federal research suggests greenhouse gas emissions from the Alberta oilsands may be significantly underestimated, adding to a growing pile of studies that…
“The discrepancy is quite large,” said Wren. “It’s large enough to point to the need to understand why we’re seeing this.”
Industry typically estimates its emissions by comparing known inputs against outputs, with allowances for leakage and other fugitive releases — a so-called “bottom-up” approach. The method is considered reliable and accurate, said co-author John Liggio, also of Environment Canada.But when researchers use atmospheric measurement — the “top-down” approach — they consistently get higher readings of whatever it is they’re looking for.
“We need to start thinking about using atmospheric measurements with the bottom-up approach. It’s coming, but we’re not quite there yet.” Without reconciling those differences, it’s hard to set targets for emissions reductions or know if they’re being met — a key issue for government and industry climate plans. For example, the 31 million tonnes of unreported carbon is about three times the total amount stored since 2015 through carbon capture and storage, the fix industry hopes will eventually make it carbon-neutral.
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