Daily roundup of research and analysis from the The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
Morgan Stanley’s research department highlights U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson’s faith in oil stocks in the coming months,
“MS Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson highlights that with the Fed appearing to be less concerned about inflation or looser financial conditions, reflation trades are coming back into vogue. Mike thinks that the internals of the market appear to be onto this with some of the strongest breadth coming from the commodity cyclicals.
“The stock market rally is quite visible, but risks are not always apparent in the numbers. Historically investors have used the equity risk premium , a variable that incorporates investors’ views on risks, as one gauge of the relative investment attractiveness between stocks and bonds. We measure the S&P 500 Index ERP as the earnings yield for that index minus the U.S. ICJ-year Treasury bond yield. Typically, lower ERPs have corresponded to lower expected returns over the long run.
“BofA’s three quantitative models now all reflect an upturn in the equity cycle … While Europe is often seen as “Value,” we debunk the valuation discount that Europe has. We recommend owning U.S. cyclicals for the “upturn.” We hear “the S&P 500 is egregiously expensive vs. Europe.” At first glance, it is true: the S&P 500 trades at 21x, vs. just 14x for European equities, a 50% premium, near record highs. However, 75% of that premium simply comes from the composition difference - i.e.
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