Malaysian Rating Corporation Bhd (Marc Ratings) foresees the Brent oil prices to remain elevated to hover around US$85-US$95 (US$1=RM4.78) for the remainder of 2023 and within the range of US$80-US$100 per barrel in 2024.
However, should there be more severe and widespread geopolitical conflicts affecting the physical supply and transportation of oil, Brent oil prices may surpass US$100 per barrel, it said in a statement.The rating agency said the worldwide energy landscape is currently experiencing a complex interplay of factors that are shaping the oil market’s near-term price outlook.
“Even prior to the conflict, higher oil prices had been attributed to escalating tensions in the region dating back to the troop build-up near the Russia-Ukraine border since the spring of 2021,” it said.The agency opined the current Israel-Hamas conflict has introduced multiple geopolitical risks that could potentially have a more substantial impact on oil prices compared to the Russia-Ukraine War.
On the supply side, Marc Ratings said production cuts would likely keep the total Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries production below the pre-pandemic 2015-2019 five-year average of 36.2 thousand barrels per day, primarily due to Saudi Arabia and Russia’s commitment to extending production quota cuts in favour of higher oil revenue over market share.
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