EUR/NOK breached the 11.80 mark despite commodity prices rising over the past month, highlighting the importance of the global backdrop. Economists at
Danske bank analyze the pair’s outlook. No near-term turnaround in store for NOK We still think NOK first and foremost should be treated as a high beta derivative of the global investment environment and in an environment of weakening growth, tight global monetary conditions and a strong USD, the NOK very rarely performs.
Additionally, the recent rise in long-end yields significantly increases the risk of a hard landing for the global economy. In that light, we also lift the long end of the forecast profile, which entails that we no longer embed a stronger NOK in our 12M forecast horizon. We still think NOK is fundamentally undervalued but we do not see the trigger for a turnaround in the next 12M. Forecast: 11.90 , 12.10 , 12.10 , 12.
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