The syntax of probability is clear, but its semantic interpretation is problematic for the probability that AI will lead to human doom.
None of the available interpretations of probability makes sense of this possibility.artificial intelligenceof this probability range from less than .01 to more than .99, near-certainty that AI will be the end of our species.
Unfortunately, this straightforward interpretation of probability does not apply to P, because we have no previous experience of universes turning out to develop AI that destroys its originators. No fractional calculation is possible. The best way to take a more evidential approach to probability is to judge events as resulting from causal setups in the world that have propensities to produce different outcomes. For example, if you buy a new car, then it has various propensities to have different outcomes such as running well or breaking down. Then you could estimate the probability of different outcomes by using statistics about the behavior of past or similar models.
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