New 'super bull' commodities phase could dramatically change budget outlook

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New 'super bull' commodities phase could dramatically change budget outlook
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Economists are predicting the price of Australia's most valuable export, iron ore, to remain much higher than government forecasts, meaning there could be a lot more money to spend in the next federal budget.

Global demand for Australia's most lucrative export, iron ore, shows no sign of waning, with one major bank forecasting a surge in demand that will keep the price high for the next 12 months.

Demand from China, the largest buyer of Australia's iron ore, is expected to take a hit as its property market falters. But it's currently close to $US120 per tonne and some economists predict prices are set to stay at about $US100 per tonne. "There are big differences; you look at today's iron ore price. and it's double what Treasury's assuming it will be in nine months' time.Mr Richardson told the ABC a 2024/25 surplus was possible without the stage 3 tax cuts.Australia's unemployment rate is also expected to rise to 4.5 per cent later this year.

The World Today asked the treasurer and his office said Treasury will update the budget in due course.

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