In the past, unite-the-left talk has foundered because one of the two parties was much more popular than the other and saw no benefit in merging
The federal political landscape is shifting in ways never seen before. The Liberals and the NDP are in a race to the bottom. The Conservatives are targeting ridings held by both parties. Yet this could present a unique opportunity for progressives.
This was predictable. When a small party agrees to support a large party in a minority Parliament in exchange for legislative concessions, the small party usually suffers at the polls. It happened to the Ontario NDP in the 1980s, to the Liberal Democrats in Britain a decade ago and to the Greens in British Columbia more recently.
NDP MPs Charlie Angus and Carol Hughes, who hold Northern Ontario ridings, and Rachel Blaney, whose riding is on Vancouver Island,Polling analyst Éric Grenier believes that changing riding boundaries and Tory popularity among working-class voters and private-sector union members pose such a challenge for the NDP that “they would be lucky to get out of Northern Ontario with one seat right now.
“If there is a crushing defeat for both of them at the next federal election, they will not necessarily merge,” Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, said in an interview. “But I think the odds that they would agree to entertain the idea would be much higher.” Both the Liberals and the NDP may be in search of new leaders after the next election, affording an opportunity for candidates to say whether they would be open to exploring the possibility of co-operating with the other party – though Prof. Béland believes it might take at least two majority-government victories by the Conservatives for the Liberals and the NDP to enter into serious talks.
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