Earthquakes cannot be predicted; the best tools to mitigate the impact are seismic hazard studies.
More than 2,000 people died when a powerful magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck Morocco on 8 September. The epicentre was in the High Atlas Mountains, 71km south-west of Marrakesh. Moina Spooner, from The Conversation Africa, asked José A. Peláez, a professor in geophysics who has carried out research on seismic activity in Morocco, about what led to this situation.
Currently, the collisions between the plates are causing a shortening of the Atlas Mountains, explaining the area’s seismicity. We know this because of data from GPS measurements, which show that they are moving about 1 millimetre closer to each other every year. What is Morocco’s history of earthquakes? Seismic activity and its phenomena, like earthquakes, are not unusual in Morocco.
A bit further back in history, there was the devastating Agadir earthquake in February 1960, with a magnitude of 6.3. It was located around the boundary between the western High Atlas and the Anti Atlas, to the south. Available data indicates that between 12,000 and 15,000 people died due to this event. In addition, near the location of the recent event, there was another earthquake in 1955, with an estimated magnitude of about 5.8.
This is that we call a long-term prediction, carried out from specific seismic hazard studies in the region. They are based on knowledge of past seismicity in the area, both historical and instrumental, and on the existence and knowledge of active tectonic structures that could generate earthquakes.
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