It's been a mostly quiet start to a busy week in Asia, though China came bearing positive surprises as industrial output and retail sales beat forecasts...
It's been a mostly quiet start to a busy week in Asia, though China came bearing positive surprises as industrial output and retail sales beat forecasts.
Speculation is rife the Bank of Japan will end eight years of negative interest rates on Tuesday and cease or amend its yield curve control policy. One-month rates have climbed into positive territory for the first time since 2016, albeit to just 0.01%. So discounted is a change that the yen has been easing broadly and the dollar has regained the 149.00 handle.
Analysts assume policy makers will look through the recent run of unhelpfully high inflation readings as a seasonal and statistical aberration, but there has to be a risk the median dot plot shifts to two 25 bps rate cuts this year rather than the former three cuts. The Bank of England meets Thursday and is likely to hold at 5.25% - a cut is priced as a 2% chance. A first easing in June is put at 50-50, with 25 bps fully priced in for August and 60 bps for all of 2024.Markets see rather more chance - around 29% - the Swiss National Bank could trim its 1.75% rate on Thursday. Consumer price inflation is running 0.6 ppts below the bank's 1.8% first-quarter forecast, while core inflation of 1.1% is the lowest since January 2022.
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