Two years out from Germany’s next national election, the debate about who the opposition conservatives should pick to run against Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz is heating up.
As chairman of the Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz would typically be a shoe-in as the candidate for the CDU/CSU alliance. With a healthy lead in the polls and the ruling coalition hamstrung by infighting, he should be relishing the prospect of unseating Scholz in the fall of 2025.
Although relatively inexperienced — the fresh-faced 48-year-old has only been in office since October 2021 and has never served at the federal level — he won plaudits for comfortably holding the traditional Social Democratic bastion for the conservatives in a state election last year. In a sign that he’s flexible enough to work with political and ideological rivals, he rules in a coalition with the Greens.
Moreover, if the conservatives were to take back the federal chancellery, they would probably need to form an alliance that includes the Greens, who are currently polling at around 15%. Merz has said a decision on the candidate won’t be made until late summer 2024 at the earliest. On Sunday, he indicated in an interview with public broadcaster ARD that it could be delayed until after three regional elections in eastern Germany in the fall of next year.
The messy dispute was seen as damaging to Laschet’s campaign and the conservative alliance will be keen to avoid a repeat. He’s well positioned for a national run simply by dint of leading North Rhine-Westphalia, according to Woll of the Hertie school. The post is “a good school for the chancellor’s office” given that the state is grappling with many of the same challenges facing Germany at large, she said.
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