Recession forecasts seem to be appearing and disappearing with great regularity
Like mirages on the horizon, recession forecasts seem to be appearing and disappearing with great regularity - questioning any investment conviction, the reliability of pandemic-distorted data and still-low volatility gauges in financial markets.
Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs - often a market mover with its big macro calls - is a good example. Last month it revised away forecasts for a euro zone contraction this year and this week cut its chances of a U.S. recession in 2023 to just one-in-four from one-in-three previously. Last Friday’s red hot January employment report is forcing hurried rethinks everywhere. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated baldly that the lowest jobless rate since 1969 is simply inconsistent with recession this year and Federal Reserve policymakers are already turning even more hawkish on the rate outlook.
A bigger issue is whether monthly data can be trusted for steer on the business cycle you’re trying to second guess. Although not inconsistent with other tight labor market soundings, the U.S. January jobs report was riddled with revisions, remodeling and seasonal adjustments.
Philippines Latest News, Philippines Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Canadian dollar’s outlook uncertain amid recession concerns, analysts say - National | Globalnews.caThe Canadian dollar recently rose to its highest level in more than two months against the U.S. dollar, which gained strength Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report.
Read more »
FOMO fuels market rally as investors assess risks of a recession are recedingInvestors are jumping into risky assets fuelling a rally that has lifted the S\u0026amp\u003BP 500 eight per cent and the Nasdaq 14 per cent. Read on.
Read more »
Inflation, interest rates and recession fears continue to affect commodity pricesCommodity markets will likely continue to be volatile through 2023 as the inflation/recession battle plays out
Read more »
Oil climbs from one-month low after slump as Cehyan Pipe halted - BNN BloombergOil rose as a major oil pipeline was temporarily halted, while key producers flagged stronger Chinese demand just as more sanctions on Russian flows take effect.
Read more »
Canadian dollar hits six-day low as Federal Reserve tightening risk clips sentimentLoonie at 74.32 U.S. cents
Read more »
Business confidence at new low, Ontario Chamber of Commerce survey saysOnly 16 per cent positive about 2023, amid inflation, labour shortages, recession worries - and concerns over health care
Read more »