Loan demand from business borrowers expected to boost Big Six profits in first quarter

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Loan demand from business borrowers expected to boost Big Six profits in first quarter
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Despite the threat of recession, loan growth will boost results for banks

On average, profits across the Big Six banks could rise 6 per cent from the previous quarter, but drop 8 per cent from the same period a year earlier, as loan loss provisions climb back up toward prepandemic levels, according to research by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Mike Rizvanovic.

“While we don’t dismiss the potential downside risk to earnings from rising PCLs as the economy weakens in a higher rate environment, we view a moderate recession as very manageable from a loan loss perspective,” Mr. Rizvanovic said in a note to clients. “Fuelled by the BoC’s ongoing rate hiking cycle, we believe that the environment continues to be supportive for net interest margins,” Barclays analyst John Aiken said in a note. “Although Canada’s real estate market continues to moderate, we anticipate mortgage volumes will stay positive, albeit at a more modest growth rate. As such, we anticipate net interest income will continue to trend higher” from levels in the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year.

Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Montreal and Royal Bank of Canada are already in the throes of some of the biggest acquisitions in the industry’s history. “A more challenging capital and regulatory environment for banks ... is something that we are very concerned about,” he said in a note.

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